Advanced Statistics: GoldenStocks Short Only
Advanced Statistics module contributed by Jules Ellis, C2 Member. Jules has written a very helpful guide for these statistics. | |||||
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| ANALYSIS BASED ON MONTHLY VALUES, FULL HISTORY (Back) | |||||
| RATIO STATISTICS | |||||
| Ratio statistics of excess return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | -0.025 | ||||
| SD | 0.082 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -0.299 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -0.296 | ||||
| df | 68.000 | ||||
| t | -0.717 | ||||
| p | 0.762 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -1.117 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.521 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -1.115 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 0.523 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | -0.567 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 1.214 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.053 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.077 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.070 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.043 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 14.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 55.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 69.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.289 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | -0.025 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.383 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.082 | ||||
| Covariance | -0.012 | ||||
| r | -0.375 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.081 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.001 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.006 | ||||
| DF error | 67.000 | ||||
| t(b) | -3.312 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.999 | ||||
| t(a) | -0.041 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.516 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.129 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.032 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.067 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.064 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.306 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.001 | ||||
| Ratio statistics of excess log return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | -0.028 | ||||
| SD | 0.079 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -0.350 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -0.346 | ||||
| df | 68.000 | ||||
| t | -0.840 | ||||
| p | 0.798 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -1.168 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.470 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -1.166 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 0.473 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | -0.627 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 1.137 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.050 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.078 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.065 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.044 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 14.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 55.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 69.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.222 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | -0.028 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.349 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.079 | ||||
| Covariance | -0.012 | ||||
| r | -0.439 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.100 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.006 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.005 | ||||
| DF error | 67.000 | ||||
| t(b) | -4.004 | ||||
| p(b) | 1.000 | ||||
| t(a) | -0.184 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.573 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.150 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.050 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.066 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.055 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.278 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.006 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric) | |||||
| assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.039 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.048 | ||||
| assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.020 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.035 | ||||
| ORDER STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of return rates | |||||
| Number of observations | 69.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.944 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.997 | ||||
| Median | 1.000 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 1.002 | ||||
| Maximum | 1.148 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.986 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.999 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.001 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.021 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.005 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 5.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.072 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | 0.964 | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 5.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.072 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 1.060 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.967 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.014 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.430 | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.843 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.012 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.078 | ||||
| DRAW DOWN STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of draw downs | |||||
| Number of observations | 8.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.002 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.005 | ||||
| Median | 0.014 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 0.030 | ||||
| Maximum | 0.076 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.003 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.008 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.018 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.068 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.024 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | NA | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 1.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.125 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 0.076 | ||||
| Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | NA | ||||
| COMBINED STATISTICS | |||||
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.017 | ||||
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.016 | ||||
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0.217 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 0.241 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 0.340 | ||||
| ANALYSIS BASED ON DAILY VALUES, FULL HISTORY (Back) | |||||
| RATIO STATISTICS | |||||
| Ratio statistics of excess return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | -0.004 | ||||
| SD | 0.219 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -0.018 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -0.018 | ||||
| df | 1507.000 | ||||
| t | -0.042 | ||||
| p | 0.501 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.834 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.799 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -0.834 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 0.799 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | -0.025 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 3.454 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.524 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.528 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.158 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.152 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 588.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 920.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 1508.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.424 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | -0.004 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.604 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.219 | ||||
| Covariance | -0.087 | ||||
| r | -0.660 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.239 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.098 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.027 | ||||
| DF error | 1506.000 | ||||
| t(b) | -34.085 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.830 | ||||
| t(a) | 1.421 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.482 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.253 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.226 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.037 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.232 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.016 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.098 | ||||
| Ratio statistics of excess log return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | -0.028 | ||||
| SD | 0.219 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -0.127 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -0.127 | ||||
| df | 1507.000 | ||||
| t | -0.304 | ||||
| p | 0.505 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.944 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.690 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -0.944 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 0.690 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | -0.175 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 3.218 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.512 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.540 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.150 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.159 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 588.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 920.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 1508.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 0.243 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | -0.028 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.600 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.219 | ||||
| Covariance | -0.087 | ||||
| r | -0.664 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.242 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.031 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.027 | ||||
| DF error | 1506.000 | ||||
| t(b) | -34.464 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.832 | ||||
| t(a) | 0.456 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.494 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.256 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.229 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.103 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.165 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.115 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.031 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric) | |||||
| assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.022 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.028 | ||||
| assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.005 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.012 | ||||
| ORDER STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of return rates | |||||
| Number of observations | 1508.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.861 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 1.000 | ||||
| Median | 1.000 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 1.001 | ||||
| Maximum | 1.159 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.992 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.000 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.000 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.008 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.001 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 156.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.103 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | 0.983 | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 186.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.123 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 1.015 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 1.280 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.005 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.888 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.004 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.040 | ||||
| DRAW DOWN STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of draw downs | |||||
| Number of observations | 33.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.000 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.004 | ||||
| Median | 0.010 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 0.022 | ||||
| Maximum | 0.155 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.001 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.007 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.015 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.086 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.018 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | NA | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 5.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.152 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 0.119 | ||||
| Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.273 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.071 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.125 | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | -0.523 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.094 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.111 | ||||
| COMBINED STATISTICS | |||||
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.017 | ||||
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.016 | ||||
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0.106 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 0.190 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 0.593 | ||||
| ANALYSIS BASED ON DAILY VALUES, LAST 6 MONTHS (Back) | |||||
| RATIO STATISTICS | |||||
| Ratio statistics of excess return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | -0.069 | ||||
| SD | 0.029 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -2.354 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -2.340 | ||||
| df | 130.000 | ||||
| t | -1.664 | ||||
| p | 0.572 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -5.136 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.437 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -5.127 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 0.446 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | -3.196 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 1.733 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.038 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.107 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.020 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.022 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 8.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 123.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 131.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 1.958 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | -0.069 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.699 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.029 | ||||
| Covariance | -0.000 | ||||
| r | -0.009 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.000 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.069 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.001 | ||||
| DF error | 129.000 | ||||
| t(b) | -0.104 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.506 | ||||
| t(a) | -1.616 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.589 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.008 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.007 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.153 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.015 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 179.370 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.069 | ||||
| Ratio statistics of excess log return rates | |||||
| Statistics related to Sharpe ratio | |||||
| Mean | -0.070 | ||||
| SD | 0.029 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -2.369 | ||||
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -2.355 | ||||
| df | 130.000 | ||||
| t | -1.675 | ||||
| p | 0.573 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -5.151 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.423 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | -5.141 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation) | 0.432 | ||||
| Statistics related to Sortino ratio | |||||
| Sortino ratio | -3.196 | ||||
| Upside Potential Ratio | 1.713 | ||||
| Upside part of mean | 0.037 | ||||
| Downside part of mean | -0.107 | ||||
| Upside SD | 0.020 | ||||
| Downside SD | 0.022 | ||||
| N nonnegative terms | 8.000 | ||||
| N negative terms | 123.000 | ||||
| Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark | |||||
| N of observations | 131.000 | ||||
| Mean of predictor | 1.714 | ||||
| Mean of criterion | -0.070 | ||||
| SD of predictor | 0.691 | ||||
| SD of criterion | 0.029 | ||||
| Covariance | -0.000 | ||||
| r | -0.011 | ||||
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.000 | ||||
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.069 | ||||
| Mean Square Error | 0.001 | ||||
| DF error | 129.000 | ||||
| t(b) | -0.121 | ||||
| p(b) | 0.507 | ||||
| t(a) | -1.631 | ||||
| p(a) | 0.590 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.008 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.007 | ||||
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.153 | ||||
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.015 | ||||
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 153.687 | ||||
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.069 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric) | |||||
| assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.003 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.004 | ||||
| assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics) | |||||
| VaR(95%) | 0.001 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.003 | ||||
| ORDER STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of return rates | |||||
| Number of observations | 131.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.986 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 1.000 | ||||
| Median | 1.000 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 1.000 | ||||
| Maximum | 1.014 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.999 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.000 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.000 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.001 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.000 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 22.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.168 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | 0.998 | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 14.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.107 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | 1.001 | ||||
| Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.755 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.001 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.004 | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.651 | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.001 | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.003 | ||||
| DRAW DOWN STATISTICS | |||||
| Quartiles of draw downs | |||||
| Number of observations | 2.000 | ||||
| Minimum | 0.013 | ||||
| Quartile 1 | 0.013 | ||||
| Median | 0.013 | ||||
| Quartile 3 | 0.014 | ||||
| Maximum | 0.014 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.013 | ||||
| Mean of quarter 2 | NA | ||||
| Mean of quarter 3 | NA | ||||
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.014 | ||||
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.001 | ||||
| Number outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers low | NA | ||||
| Number of outliers high | 0.000 | ||||
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.000 | ||||
| Mean of outliers high | NA | ||||
| Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value Theory) | |||||
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | NA | ||||
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | NA | ||||
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | NA | ||||
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | NA | ||||
| COMBINED STATISTICS | |||||
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | -0.026 | ||||
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | -0.025 | ||||
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | -1.807 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | -1.807 | ||||
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | -6.335 | ||||