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Have Fun

What it trades: Futures Strategies: Technical analysis

Hypothetical Monthly Results

 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
2007                     +6.0%+2.5%+4.4%+7.4%+2.6%+2.4%+1.9%+3.0%+4.9%
2008+2.1%+2.0%+3.1%(0.8%)+1.2%+2.0%(1.8%)(2%)+2.5%+2.4%+1.6%+3.0%
2009(1.4%)  -  +1.8%+1.0%(3.7%)+0.4%(3.8%)+2.6%(0.9%)+0.8%+0.7%(0.7%)
2010  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -                    

 
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Subscription Terms

$199 per month, only if profitable (Details)

This is a pay-for-performance system. Subscriptions cost $199 at the end of each month, but only if the system has made profitable recommendations for the period.

To determine profitability, we do not look at your brokerage account, nor do we take into consideration whether you actually placed the trades recommended here. We simply measure the system's hypothetical track record here on the Collective2 Web site, without factoring fees or commissions. You will not be charged unless the sum of the trades during the period was profitable. (Also, we want to reassure you that a "month" means a full 30-day period. That is, you are billed only if the last 30 days' worth of trade recommendations were profitable. So it's safe to subscribe at the end of a calendar month; you'll still get 30 days' worth of trades.)



Strategy Description 


Have Fun, trade smarter not harder.
read more...

- This text was submitted by the creator of this strategy. Collective2 verifies only trading signals and hypothetical trading results. We have not verified that text above is an accurate Strategy Description. (Contact System Developer)




Recently Closed Trades

Details

System creator requested that closed trades data below be delayed by 3 hours.

Opened ET B/S # Symbol   Price Closed Price Risk P/L
12/4/09 9:34 SELL 3 @TFSZ9 Emini Russell 600.20 12/4 11:07 604 Low ($1,140)
11/18/09 10:32 SELL 3 @TFSZ9 Emini Russell 596.70 11/18 11:43 596.60 Low $30
11/12/09 9:30 SELL 3 @TFSZ9 Emini Russell 590.70 11/12 11:23 587.30 Low $1,020
10/9/09 15:54 SELL 3 @TFSZ9 Emini Russell 612.50 10/13 14:23 608.10 Low $1,320
9/30/09 12:55 SELL 3 @TFSZ9 Emini Russell 606.10 9/30 16:05 601.10 Low $1,500
9/11/09 9:29 SELL 3 @TFSZ9 Emini Russell 592.60 9/11 15:45 592.20 Low $120
9/9/09 9:31 SELL 3 @TFSU9 Emini Russell 576 9/9 11:33 586.10 Normal ($3,030)
8/24/09 9:30 SELL 3 @TFSU9 Emini Russell 582.67 8/24 15:21 577.70 Low $1,490
8/10/09 9:37 SELL 3 @TFSU9 Emini Russell 569.30 8/11 10:30 560.80 Low $2,550
7/27/09 9:35 SELL 3 @TFSU9 Emini Russell 545.87 7/30 9:52 556.40 Normal ($3,160)
7/15/09 9:30 SELL 3 @TFSU9 Emini Russell 502.77 7/15 13:52 512.70 Low ($2,978)
6/19/09 9:30 SELL 3 @TFSU9 Emini Russell 513.25 6/22 9:42 500.95 Low $3,690
6/5/09 10:05 SELL 3 @TFSM9 Emini Russell 530.40 6/5 15:39 530.40 Low $0
6/1/09 9:29 SELL 3 @TFSM9 Emini Russell 512.17 6/1 12:33 522.10 Normal ($2,978)
5/19/09 13:55 SELL 3 @TFSM9 Emini Russell 494.19 5/20 10:19 504.20 Low ($3,003)

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Reviews


 
Aug 4, 2008 from AutoTrader

The System doesn’t works now. I think it would be better to choose another system. The average per winning trade is 1200$ and the average per loosing trade is 1533$ in the last four month. But the win/loss ratio drops from 80% to 50%. It was a very gut system, but it would be better to wait until the win/loss ratio arises again to 75%.

 
July 21, 2008 from AutoTrader

A few other systems I subscribed gave much better results than this, and cost 1/2 to 1/3 of the price only. If it charges $199 per month with infrequent trade signals, I would expect the prob of win is > 85%. This proves that higher price does not mean better! I think that I would have traded better by just flipping a coin than by using this system. So I've un-subscribed it and never looked back again.

 
July 18, 2008 from AutoTrader

Since I joined over 3 months ago, the win ratio has dropped to 50%, and the system has lost money, including fees. Like another review says, the losers are bigger than the winners, and the trades go against the trend, when sometimes the trend is unstoppable. With such trade management, each entry has to be spot-on, to keep the high win ratio. The lateest trade, the vendor just entered too soon (short ER2 at open at 688), and then held on (despite going 5 points into profit at one stage) without even moving the stop. Eventually the ER2 uptrend resumed, and we got swept away, again for a bigger loss than any of the winners we've had. It's a shame because this systems has done so well previously, is so highly regarded, and when the vendor gets it right, it's a pleasure to watch.

 
May 20, 2008 from AutoTrader

The trader tries to do a good job catching counter trends, and while the profitable trades to loses is exceptional over a 12 month period, the risk to reward seems (or at this time of this review) to be out of skew which may be as a result is showing more frequent losses in recent months plus the change in market dynamics in recent months as well might be posing an issue - not sure.



Statistics

Analytics  
System has been audited since4/19/2007 (41 months ago)
Trades106
# Profitable70 (66.0%)
# months tracked42
Profitable months24 (57.1%)
Avg trade duration21.6 hours
Annual return (compounded)14.1%
Average win$1,564
Average loss$1,451
Profit factor2.1:1
Max peak-to-valley drawdown (historical)7.3%
drawdown periodApril 28, 2009 to Aug 10, 2009
Correlation w/ S&P-0.060
Sharpe ratio1.655
C2Realism Factor 0%
Keep after worst-case slippage 100.0%
Probabilities of future account loss  
Chance of 10% account loss0.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss0.0%
Average Profit to Drawdown (APD)0.38
Average P/L per unit traded$204.48


System Description










Have fun is a discretionary method, trading TFS. This is a swing system. This system makes a few transactions per month. An average duration of one signal can vary from a few hours to two-three days. I strongly believe that a high number of transaction is not necessary to obtain good results. I always look for transactions which give a high probability of success.

I always protect my open position (even if I don’t send stop loss order immediately). I am a defensive trader, which means that I always protect my capital first and only then try to earn some money.

All signals are posted during CME session.
I only use market orders and stop orders. I never use limit orders.
My goal is a steady growth of account with reasonable DD.

MM should be adjusted personally.
For my purpose I use:
half position - 3 contracts
one position - 6 contracts
one and a half position - 9 contracts (used only in case of a very high probability of success).

Right now a minimum amount suggested in order to start following my method is 50.000 USD. In this case you divide my MM which I describe above by three.
Once my account raises I will modify MM.

- This System Description text was submitted by the creator of this strategy. Collective2 verifies only trading signals and hypothetical trading results. We have not verified that this text above is an accurate system description.